As we’re heading into 2026, we at Dataminr see the cyber landscape reshaped by new motives, bolder adversaries, and evolving technologies. It will require organizations to make more than just incremental adjustments to security strategies. We foresee fundamental shifts in how adversaries operate, the targets they choose, and the way organizations must prepare to defend themselves. Here are our eight predictions for the cybersecurity challenges that will define 2026.
Prediction 1: Aggressive Attacks on Critical Systems Will Cause Systemic Disruption
We expect to see an escalation in attacks aimed at society’s most vital systems. Infrastructure like telecommunications, rail networks, and water treatment facilities will face both opportunistic and more targeted and destructive threats. Threat actors, either overestimating their own capabilities or misunderstanding the tools they wield, will cause collateral damage far beyond their initial targets. This will leave security teams scrambling to contain potentially cascading failures. If these attacks are politically motivated, a cyber operation could easily spill over into a real-world physical conflict.
Prediction 2: Attackers Will Prioritize Data Exfiltration Over Ransomware
The era of system-locking ransomware as a primary cybercriminal attack method is waning. By 2026, we predict a decisive shift toward pure data exfiltration. Attackers are increasingly finding that encrypting entire networks is inefficient and often triggers robust security measures. It is far simpler and more efficient to breach a network, steal valuable data, and hold it hostage with the threat of public release. This strategy circumvents many traditional ransomware defenses and hits organizations where it hurts most: their reputation, customer trust, and bottom line.
Prediction 3: Industry Complacency Will Create an “Adversary Free-for-All”
A perfect storm is brewing, created by organizational complacency and mass layoffs in the security workforce. Many companies that once prided themselves on robust cybersecurity programs are now cutting experienced personnel and placing a misplaced faith in early-stage AI security tools to fill the void. This is creating a dangerous security vacuum. While AI is a highly valuable tool, it cannot replace human intuition and expertise. This growing over-reliance on automation will weaken security postures, creating an “adversary free-for-all” where attackers can exploit new vulnerabilities with greater ease and frequency.
Prediction 4: China-Affiliated Threat Actors Will Escalate Operations Brazenly
We predict that in 2026, state-sponsored actors affiliated with China will become one of the foremost security threats to both public and private sector entities in the U.S. and its allied nations. We have already witnessed a significant surge in operations from these groups, and their continued success will only make them bolder.
Prediction 5: Critical Infrastructure Targeting Will Expand to Logistics and Manufacturing
The scope of critical infrastructure attacks will broaden beyond typical targets like finance and energy. We foresee an increased focus on sectors that support logistics and manufacturing, including food and agriculture. Recent events, such as the cyber attack that left a major grocery chain’s shelves empty, are a sign of things to come. Adversaries will increasingly probe new societal pressure points to cause maximum disruption. We expect more attacks on the agricultural industry, as well as on weak points in the supply chain like shipping ports and railways, which are often among the least secure.
Prediction 6: Governments Will Adopt a Hybrid AI-Human Security Strategy
In the public sector, to combat rising threats and address a persistent shortage of skilled professionals, government agencies will evolve their cybersecurity approach. In 2026, we will see the strategic integration of AI tools not as a replacement for human experts, but as a powerful amplifier of their capabilities. This hybrid model will leverage AI for large-scale data analysis and initial threat detection, allowing human professionals to focus on higher-level tasks like strategic threat hunting and complex incident response. This blended approach will set a new standard for proactive public sector security.
Prediction 7: Nation-States Will Exploit Defense Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
Nation-state adversaries will increasingly target defense supply chains, with a specific focus on the smaller organizations within the Defense Industrial Base (DIB). As governments ramp up weapons production to replenish stockpiles, they will rely more on smaller, less experienced manufacturers. These companies often lack the resources for robust cybersecurity, creating weak links that attackers can exploit. A single disruption at a lower-tier supplier could create a domino effect, delaying critical national security initiatives.
Prediction 8: Hacktivist Attacks Will Intensify in Response to Geopolitical Events
Hacktivist groups will continue to leverage cyber attacks as a form of protest and retaliation against government actions. We’ve seen hacktivism spike during recent international conflicts, and this trend will only accelerate. As geopolitical tensions rise, we can expect these groups to escalate attacks on government agencies and critical infrastructure. Their goal will be to disrupt public services, undermine trust in government institutions, and amplify the domestic impact of global events.
What This Means for Organizations Worldwide
The common thread through all these predictions is that the nature of cyber risk is changing. The old security playbooks are rapidly becoming obsolete. Success in this new environment will demand a proactive, intelligence-led security posture. An effective AI-powered real-time event, threat and risk intelligence solution will prove to be a vital tool for cybersecurity teams, enabling them to eliminate blind spots, and anticipate, detect, and mitigate threats.
Organizations also need to reinvest in skilled human experts, secure every link in the supply chain, and recognize that a data breach can be just as catastrophic as a system-wide shutdown. The threats are evolving—our defenses must evolve even faster.
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